Preliminary official results gave the AfD 43.8 percent of the vote, more than double the 17.2 percent secured by Merz's Christian Democratic Union, CDU. The result gives the AfD 39 of the state parliament's 83 seats, leaving it just short of an outright majority.

It is the strongest state-election performance in the AfD's history and has transformed a regional contest into a national political crisis.

The result is particularly damaging for Merz because Saxony-Anhalt had been governed by the CDU for more than two decades. Analysis of the vote indicates widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government, economic conditions, energy prices and proposed pension reforms.

According to post-election analysis, 87 percent of surveyed voters expressed dissatisfaction with the federal government's performance. The AfD also succeeded in attracting tens of thousands of former CDU voters and previously inactive voters.

The immediate question is whether Germany's longstanding political "firewall” against cooperation with the AfD can survive.

Mainstream German parties have traditionally refused to form governments with the party. But the scale of Sunday's result is increasing pressure inside the CDU, particularly in eastern Germany, for that strategy to be reconsidered.

Merz has so far refused to retreat. Instead, he has pledged to continue with controversial economic and pension reforms despite the electoral setback.

The implications extend beyond Germany.

Europe's largest economy has for decades been one of the principal anchors of the European Union's centrist political order. A sustained AfD breakthrough could influence German policies on migration, Ukraine, Russia and European integration.

The next major test comes on September 20, when Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania holds its state election.

Germany's political establishment is therefore confronting a question that would have seemed extraordinary only a few years ago: not whether the AfD can win elections, but whether it is approaching the point where Germany's other parties can no longer prevent it from governing.

Waagacusub.net — European Affairs
By Dahir Alasow