Farmaajo's presidency cannot be salvaged! (Draft, version 1.1,) I. Context and background a. Farmaajo was an unlikely candidate for the prime minister position is 2010, but pure luck, nepotism and myopic clan dynamics landed him in the position b. Since Farmaajo was ousted from the premiership, some people mistakenly saw him as an unlikely hero who could stand up to the failed political elite and those with vested interest in keeping Somalia down. Thus, they cheered for him c. He rode on a wave of popular desire to affect change and pave the way for a substantive political transformation of the country and its institutions d. Despite the fact that Farmaajo was, at best, a political neophyte, who had no charisma or eloquent oratory skills, he captured the public imagination as a potential leader e. He became the standard-bearer for the "Coalition for change” movement’s mantra inside and outside of the country. It was NOT his idea and he was not even a founding member II. The Selection process & reasons for Farmaajo’s victory a. The desire for change prevailed b. Animosity towards HSM’s divisive and Machiavellian tactics to get reelected c. Fragmentation of the political opposition d. Myopic political calculations of the opposition; everyone wanted to be president. Lack of political compromise and common candidate became elusive than ever before e. Clan dynamics in the country and in Mogadishu In particular f. Sheikh Sharif inability to secure sufficient financial support for his campaign g. Creation of false image of Farmaajo through propaganda and baseless political rhetoric in the social media h. The problem of Somali federal parliament members; greed and myopic selfishness with utter disregard of the national interest 2 III. The Crowning of President Farmaajo a. Farmaajo selected and CROWNED as president of the Federal Republic of Somalia on February 8.2017 b. The gunfire celebrating Farmaajo’s selection erupted uncontrollably through out Mogadishu c. Even in the peripheries, there were sporadic celebrations for Farmaajo’s ascent to power d. The new crowned king did not speak in his own victory and promised to make a speech in few days later. That speech never materialized and became a symbol and how unprepared the new president was for the role he miraculously assumed IV. Political blunders and bad decisions a. Hours after he was selected, the newly minted president refused AMISOM protection and asked for Somali soldiers. He did not understand that one of the primary mandates of the AMSOM forces is to protect the federal government and its installations. He opted for a foreign paid, foreign trained special operations unit under a foreign command that are not even part of the Somali army structures. b. In his first day as president, president Farmaajo told the visiting international dignitaries including the UN, AU, EU and others that they should not travel to the regions without getting permission from the federal government. Needless to day, no one paid much attention what the president degreed and a day later most of them travelled to Jubbaland c. Contrary to the political, constitutional conventions and the expectations of the Somali people, the president appointed Hussein Moalim Sheikh Ali (close family relative of the president) as the national security advisor, the highest national security position in the entire federal government system. Hussein Moalim has no national security policy credentials. He has no experience in policy making, no educational background and no knowledge in the field of national security policy making d. Worse of all he appointed Hassan Ali Khaire as prime minister Probably the most corrupted individual in the Somali political history. There has never been any Somali accused for so much corruption and business and political links with Al Shabaab who was appointed to such an important position in the federal government. A report of almost three hundred pages was submitted to the United Nations Security Council accusing Hassan Khaire of serious misconduct and corruption. Soma Oil & Gas (the company Hassan Ali Khayre worked as the regional representative) was investigated by the Serious Fraud Office in London for serious fraud, corruption, impropriety, embezzlement of Somali public funds and bribery. H.E. prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire’s primary political objective now is to do exactly what he was paid for and please his foreign bosses and associates by pushing legislation through the parliament 3 that will give foreign oil companies monopolistic rights to explore and plunder Somali natural resources on the cheap e. President Farmaajo’s choosen prime minister created the most mediocre cabinet (Mainly from the NGO sector). And probably the worse ever in recent Somali political memory. It was advertised as a "technocratic” cabinet, the fact is, very few of the ministers have any technical knowledge or experience in any field f. President Farmaajo capitulated and transferred all political and constitutional powers that he has to Hassan Ali Khaire. As a result, he is a lame duck president on the books but does very little in terms of political operations that resemble what the president was supposed to do. g. The office of the president is like a ghost house, empty, disorganized, dull and boring. The decorations and the fine carpets he inherited from HSM government looks great h. There are no organized political or national security teams in the presidency. No political outreach to the parliament, to the government, to state and regional governments or to the Somali people at large. No one knows what president Farmaajo does or what exactly he wants to do. It is a mystery to all and probably to Farmaajo himself i. President Farmaajo looks like someone who is at lost in the ocean and do not know which direction to go or what to do. The president desperately needs to be relieved from the difficult duties of the office. Can anyone help him??? V. National security and foreign policy blunders a. President Farmaajo single-handedly dismantled and decapitated the Somali military and national security forces by turning the Somali National Army (SNA) and the Somali Police Force into clan militias with no centralized command and control structures. SNA is going to be afractured and with no national army resemblance at all b. President Farmaajo is unable to frame a comprehensive national security strategy that addresses the two most pressing threats facing the Somali nation; Al Shabab and the recurring droughts. So far he made four conflicting and confusing statements regarding how to defeat Al Shabab. First, he put on Somali army camouflage uniform and declared that he will defeat Al Shabab within two months. Second, few days after he made that statement, he said that he needed two years to drive Al Shabab out of the country. Third, he said that political dialogue was the best option and he offered political amnesty to Al Shabab members. Fourth, in his last statement regarding Al Shabab, he said that he still believes that he only needs two years to defeat them. It is very hard to know what he wants to do c. President Farmaajo and his government failed to advocate properly and convincingly lifting of arms embargo against Somalia. Instead, it is actually Ethiopia (a country and government 4 that he demonized viciously for the past few years) that is doing all political and diplomatic heavy-lifting for Somalia on the issue of lifting the arms embargo (I believe arms embargo must be lifted) d. The security situation in the country is worsening, particularly in Mogadishu. As a result, more than a thousand Somali were killed since Farmaajo became president three months ago. Yet, president Farmaajo did little to help resolve the security threat facing the Somali nation e. More six million Somalis are affected by the worse drought in living memory. Yet, the president Farmaajo seems to enjoy his overseas trips more than helping the Somali people. According to cost estimates obtained from the ministry of finance, each presidential trip costs USD 200,000-400,000. And he is on his 8th trip since he became president about twelve weeks ago. The money wasted on these useless overseas trips could feed hundreds of starving Somalis for months f. President Farmaajo demonizes African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). He does not seem to understand that AMSOM is in Somalia through African Union and United Nations Security Council mandate approved by the Arab League, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and other international security partners g. President Farmaajo should know that Uganda alone lost almost one thousand of its soldiers and there are families in all over Uganda that their sons and daughters were killed in the fight to liberate Somalia. At the very least, those families deserve our at most respect and gratitude h. The United Nations Security Council renews AMISOM mandate periodically. If President wants AMISOM out, he can simply write to the Security Council and the African Union. Realistically, he cannot do since Al Shabab will over run Villa Somalia and the rest of the country in a matter of days! VI. What needs to be done NOW a. President Farmaajo must change the political direction of the country ASAP if he is to hold his presidency a bit longer b. He must articulate and introduce a comprehensive national security strategy that addresses the most pressing national security challenges, including the threat from Al Shabab, the recurring drought. The national reconciliation processes must be reinitiated as soon as possible FARMAAJO IS UNPREPARED AND UNFIT TO BE PRESIDENT!