Israel Raises Security Concerns Over Turkish Military Activity in Somalia

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Israel Raises Security Concerns Over Turkish Military Activity in Somalia

Israel has issued an unusual security assessment naming Somalia as an emerging strategic risk, according to a detailed report published by Israel Hayom. The development marks the first time Israel has publicly identified Somalia as a potential source

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Israel has issued an unusual security assessment naming Somalia as an emerging strategic risk, according to a detailed report published by Israel Hayom. The development marks the first time Israel has publicly identified Somalia as a potential source of long-range military threats. The report states that Israeli security institutions are closely observing Turkey's expanding defence footprint in Mogadishu, including what is described as a covert initiative to establish a long-range missile testing and aerospace command site on Somalia's coastline.

Strategic analyst Shay Gal told the newspaper that the geographical distance between Somalia and Israel is not sufficient to neutralize threats posed by long-range missile systems under development in Turkey. He compared Somalia’s distance to Israel with that of Iran, a country long considered central to Israel’s security doctrine.

Gal highlighted particular concern over Turkey’s Tayfun missile, which reportedly requires test launches over the Indian Ocean. Somalia’s coastline, he noted, could provide an ideal testing corridor, raising Israeli fears that the country could one day become a launch platform for long-range capabilities.

Mossad Expected to Increase Intelligence Operations in the Horn of Africa

According to the report, Israel is preparing to expand intelligence monitoring in Somalia. If Turkish military infrastructure or missile-related programs take shape in the country, experts believe Mossad will prioritise Somalia as a key observation zone in the region.

This signals a potential shift in the geopolitical focus of the Horn of Africa, which has increasingly become a site of foreign military activity and strategic competition.

Somalia’s Growing Role in Regional Power Dynamics

Turkey already operates one of its largest overseas military facilities in Mogadishu and plays a central role in training Somali security forces. The new Israeli assessment suggests that the partnership may be evolving into areas with regional strategic implications, particularly if missile-testing or aerospace projects materialize.

Diplomats and analysts say the situation could place Somalia in the middle of wider geopolitical tensions between Turkey and Israel, two regional powers whose relations have been strained over multiple fronts.

Risk of the Horn of Africa Becoming a Strategic Contest Zone
Security observers warn that increased foreign military interest in Somalia could carry several consequences:
Intensified intelligence activity from competing powers
Vulnerability of Somali territory to external military use
Heightened strategic rivalry in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean corridor
Potential impact on stability in the Horn of Africa

The region’s geopolitical importance — including its proximity to key shipping lanes — makes it a critical focus for Middle Eastern and global actors.

Conclusion

Israel’s latest assessment underscores growing uncertainty around the strategic trajectory of Somalia’s defence partnerships. While Somalia continues to deepen cooperation with Turkey in areas such as training and security support, Israel’s response indicates broader regional concerns about the long-term implications.

Sunatimes will continue to monitor developments as more details emerge regarding Israel’s intelligence posture and Turkey’s planned military or aerospace activities in Somalia.

By Dahir Alasow

[email protected]
Sunatimes Investigations Desk