President Farmaajo’s goal is unattainable and he does not know that. His term is finishing on 8th of February. The truth is catching  up with the regional presidents of Galmudug  Hirshabelle and South West. In reality, they don’t represent the people of their respective regions and they can not provide a helping hand to president Farmaajo at this critical meeting. They are in very awkward situation as long as they are in a meeting where  their presence can not add value in addressing the sticking points in discussion.

There are eight people in the meeting. Five of them are spectators who don’t have any political weight to influence the expected decision on holding free and fair elections. Why is that? The Mayor of Mogadishu  and the prime minister were appointed by president Farmaajo and they could not be expected to go against their boss. They don’t represent their constituencies in the first place.

The other three regional leaders were selected and funded with government resources and supported with government troops to knock out other contesting candidates from their respective regions. The truth of the matter is  that all Somali know that they don’t  represent their constituencies as well. Even if they  manage to stay in line and support the president,  he can not reach his desired objective from this meeting. Why not?

Because the president has been working day and night outside the drafted constitution and appointing unrepresentative people to government positions including the regional leaders. The majority of Somali people are aware of that fact and the International Community who have been funding the Somali democratic process are also aware now that the status quo can not continue any more.

On the opposite side, there are Jubaland and Puntland  whose leaders are elected leaders by their states sometimes with some difficulties. But they truely represent their constituencies and they are not obliged to follow suit other unrepresentative members in the meeting and listen to a president who belongs, in their view, their constituency ( 4.5 clan sharing system). That is why that they are calling  for the real stakeholders to take part this critical political meeting, otherwise it will fail, even if they accept the president's plan. (3.5 clans are missing from the scene).

The speaker of Upper House, Abdi Hashi is a real stakeholder whether the president likes him or not. The man represents the Somali unionists from breakaway region of Somaliland and nobody can deny their right in a supposed democratic system. it was not a wise decision  on the part of the government to stop him coming to the meeting. 

Mr.  Hashi  held a press conference and explained  clearly what had happened and put the blame squarely at the doorstep of the President Farmaajo. He also called   for Somali National Conference echoing the concern of real civil society groups who have been meeting quitely...

Critics say that a change of attitude is not probable as long as  president  Farmaajo remains dancing with his own tune and he is not aware that the political climate is changing fast.  They say  that he has destroyed the effort of Somali state building in the last twenty years single-handedly.

Critics say that there is no doubt that the president will fail and no body can save him at this late stage.  They say that the eight people who are meeting in the Samareeb ( Desamuareeb) now can not be expected by the people that they can bring about a solution to the current impasse, but they will only be remembered for their failure for a long time to come. 

Meanwhile, the real civil society groups( other 2.5 clans) are planning how to safe the country if the tenure of the President runs out in four days time. There are a lot of Somali owned agendas on the table including the new idea of Abdi Hashi, the speaker of Upper House of Somali parliament if he  can only manage to bring on board the Somaliland authority. 

Many people believe that Somaliland has the best opportunity to come back into Somali politics and work with the real civil society groups in order to sort out this political mess once for all. The end.

By Mohamed Mohamud Adde

The author is an academic and an Independent Somali Political Analyst