Threatening Messages Circulate Online

Former Deputy Director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Sadaq John, posted a controversial message on Facebook stating:

"Mr. Hassan, understand that the peace of Dhuusamareeb and Wardhiigley are connected.”

The statement has been widely interpreted by political observers as a warning that instability in Dhuusamareeb — the capital of Galmudug — could trigger unrest in Muqdisho, particularly around Villa Somalia, which is located in areas populated by members of the Habargidir clan.

Lawmakers allied with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and originating from the Abgaal clan also published strong responses online. One pro-government MP, identified as Xildhibaan Xasul, reportedly wrote:

"This is not the government you used to threaten.”

Sadaq John later responded with another message saying:

"I have always been stronger than you and those you stand with.”

Military Movements Raise Alarm

Reports from security sources indicate that elite Gorgor forces trained under Turkish military programs are moving toward Dhuusamareeb as tensions intensify.

At the same time, Muqdisho is experiencing heightened security concerns amid reports that opposition leaders have divided strategic parts of the capital among themselves while mobilizing armed supporters.

The developments have significantly increased fears that political disagreements could evolve into broader armed confrontation involving clan militias, regional forces, and federal security units.

Internal Government Divisions

The crisis has also exposed growing fractures inside the federal government itself.

Political insiders report serious disagreements between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and NISA Director Mahad Mohamed Salad.

There is also increasing speculation that Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre could resign amid mounting political pressure and widening divisions within the administration.

Regional Tensions Across Somalia

Analysts warn that instability is no longer limited to Muqdisho and Galmudug.

Political and security tensions are reportedly escalating simultaneously in:

• Galmudug
• Jubbaland
• South West State
• Hirshabelle
• Banaadir region

The overlapping crises have raised concerns that Somalia could face a nationwide political and security breakdown if dialogue efforts fail.

Turkey’s Strategic Interests

Regional intelligence-linked discussions also suggest that Turkey continues to play a major strategic role in Somalia’s political and security landscape.

Sources familiar with regional diplomacy claim Turkish intelligence structures prefer political continuity under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud due to multiple strategic agreements signed between Somalia and Turkey involving:

• Military cooperation
• Port management
• Airport operations
• Energy and offshore oil exploration

Turkey remains one of Somalia’s closest security and infrastructure partners, operating military training facilities and managing key economic infrastructure in Muqdisho.

Fears of Wider Conflict

Political observers warn that the increasingly hostile rhetoric, clan polarization, and military mobilization now taking place across southern Somalia could push the country toward a dangerous new phase of instability.

Community elders and civil society figures are calling for urgent political dialogue to prevent violence and avoid a broader collapse in national security and governance.

By Dahir Alasow – Investigative Journalist