The diplomatic rupture came after Ethiopia announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, ordering them to leave the country within 48 hours. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of direct and indirect hostile activities and alleged that Eritrean officials were involved in actions threatening Ethiopian national security.

Eritrea rejected the accusations and responded by announcing the termination of diplomatic relations with Ethiopia. Asmara has denied Ethiopian allegations that it is supporting an armed opposition alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

Renewed Fighting Raises Regional Fears

The diplomatic confrontation comes amid renewed heavy fighting in northern Ethiopia between federal forces and armed opposition groups.

The latest clashes represent the most significant escalation since the end of Ethiopia's devastating 2020–2022 civil war. Fighting has affected parts of Tigray and neighbouring Afar, while humanitarian organisations are reporting new casualties and displacement.

Explosions were also reported in Addis Ababa, including near military facilities. Ethiopian authorities have imposed restrictions on drone flights around the capital amid growing security concerns. The precise circumstances and responsibility for some of the reported explosions remain contested or have not been independently established.

Former Allies Drift Toward Confrontation

The deterioration represents a dramatic reversal in relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki restored relations in 2018 after decades of hostility following the 1998–2000 border war. Eritrean forces later fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during the war against the TPLF.

Relations subsequently deteriorated, however, particularly amid disagreements surrounding regional security and Ethiopia's pursuit of reliable access to the Red Sea.

Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of pursuing hostile policies connected to its ambitions for maritime access. Ethiopia, meanwhile, has accused Eritrea of supporting forces fighting the federal government. Both governments dispute the other's allegations.

Wider Horn of Africa Implications

The crisis is increasingly taking on a regional dimension.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting the TPLF-led opposition alliance. The three countries have denied involvement, according to Reuters. Ethiopia also declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata on October 1.

The confrontation comes against the backdrop of longstanding Ethiopian-Egyptian tensions over the Nile and Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, as well as shifting alliances around the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.

The immediate concern is whether the diplomatic breakdown between Addis Ababa and Asmara will remain political or develop into direct interstate confrontation.

A renewed Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict could have consequences far beyond their shared border, potentially affecting Tigray, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti and the wider Red Sea security environment.

With diplomatic relations now severed and fighting intensifying inside Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa has entered another period of acute uncertainty.

By Dahir Alasow