Somali intelligence sources who spoke directly to Sunatimes News Agency put the number detained at 316 soldiers. Sunatimes has not independently confirmed that figure with Ethiopian authorities. Public reports have produced conflicting numbers, ranging from about 180 to 300 and, in some accounts, substantially higher.

What is no longer disputed, however, is that members of the Xananbuure-trained force crossed into Ethiopia.

Somalia’s National Security Adviser, Aways Haji Yusuf, publicly acknowledged the soldiers’ presence in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, saying they had been granted leave after completing their training and had travelled across the border to visit their families. He said the Federal Government was aware of their movement.

The soldiers were subsequently detained by Ethiopian security forces, according to multiple reports. Some have reportedly been transferred to facilities in and around Jigjiga for questioning. A report published this week placed nearly 230 soldiers in Ethiopian custody, underscoring the continuing uncertainty over the exact number.

Recruits With Family Ties Inside Ethiopia

The composition of the force makes the episode particularly sensitive.

Sources familiar with the recruitment told Sunatimes that many of the detained soldiers come from Ogaden communities inside Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State and had crossed the border during approximately one month of leave following their graduation.

Independent reporting also indicates that many of the soldiers originated from Ethiopia’s Somali Region. Somalia’s own explanation — that the troops travelled there to visit their families — lends weight to reports that a significant portion of the recruits had family connections across the border.

This raises a potentially serious question for both governments: how did individuals residing in Ethiopia’s Somali Region come to be recruited into a Somali federal military programme, and was Addis Ababa aware of their recruitment?

Neither government has publicly provided a comprehensive answer.

Saudi Arabia Financed Xananbuure Training

The soldiers were members of a much larger force recently trained at Xananbuure in the Galgaduud region.

Public reporting and statements from Somalia’s National Security Adviser identify Saudi Arabia as the financier of the training programme. Around 3,000 soldiers reportedly completed more than a year of training before graduating in August.

This distinction is important amid speculation over the involvement of other regional powers.

Somali intelligence sources who spoke to Sunatimes described Egypt as having security and intelligence interests surrounding the broader force, but they did not identify Cairo as the principal financier of the Xananbuure programme.

The available public evidence points instead to Saudi Arabia providing the programme’s financial backing.

Sunatimes has not obtained documentation demonstrating that Egypt financed the Xananbuure training.

Intelligence Sources Point to Jubaland Plans

More consequential are allegations concerning the force’s intended mission after training.

Somali intelligence officials familiar with the security planning told Sunatimes that elements of the Xananbuure-trained force were being prepared for possible deployment in Jubaland, where the Federal Government and the regional administration have been locked in a prolonged political and security confrontation.

According to the sources, the force was intended to strengthen Mogadishu’s military position in areas contested with Jubaland authorities.

The sources went further, alleging that discussions had also taken place about the potential future use of some personnel for operations connected to Ethiopia’s Somali Region.

That allegation, if substantiated, would transform the detention controversy into a much more serious regional security matter.

Sunatimes has not independently obtained operational orders, military directives or other documentary evidence showing that the detained soldiers had been instructed to conduct operations inside Ethiopia.

Neither Somalia nor Egypt has publicly acknowledged such a plan.

The allegation therefore remains intelligence-source reporting and should not be interpreted as an established fact.

Why Addis Ababa May Be Concerned

The reported Ethiopian response takes on greater significance when viewed against the geopolitical competition surrounding Somalia.

Ethiopia and Egypt have experienced years of strategic tension, particularly over the Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Somalia, meanwhile, has expanded its security relationships with several regional powers.

A large Saudi-financed Somali force containing substantial numbers of recruits with roots inside Ethiopia’s Somali Region would therefore attract attention from Ethiopian security agencies even without evidence of an offensive mission.

Reports indicate that Ethiopian regional forces intercepted groups of the soldiers around areas including Doollo and Qoraxay before moving detainees toward other locations.

Yet Addis Ababa has not publicly explained whether the soldiers are suspected of a security offence, illegal border crossing, military activity or another violation.

That silence has left substantial room for speculation.

Mahad Salad and the Egypt Connection

The controversy also comes as attention focuses on Somalia’s intelligence relationship with Cairo.

Mahad Mohamed Salad, the director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, NISA, is regarded as a senior figure in Mogadishu’s security establishment. His appointment to lead NISA is publicly documented, while previous reporting has described him as maintaining close relations with the Egyptian government.

Somali intelligence sources speaking to Sunatimes say Salad has maintained close contacts with Egyptian intelligence officials and told the news agency that he is currently in Cairo.

Sunatimes has not independently established the purpose of his reported current presence in Cairo, nor has it obtained evidence connecting him personally to any alleged plan to conduct operations inside Ethiopia.

A relationship between NISA and Egyptian intelligence would not itself prove the existence of such an operation. Intelligence cooperation between governments can encompass counterterrorism, information sharing, training and numerous other activities.

Any allegation that Salad or Egyptian intelligence directed an operation against Ethiopia would therefore require substantially stronger evidence.

Mogadishu Says the Soldiers Were Simply on Leave

The Federal Government has offered a much less dramatic explanation.

National Security Adviser Aways Haji Yusuf said the soldiers had trained at Xananbuure for more than a year before receiving permission to visit their families in Ethiopia’s Somali Region.

He also said Mogadishu knew they were there.

That explanation resolves one question — whether Somalia knew the soldiers had crossed the border — but creates several others.

If the soldiers were legitimately on family leave, why were hundreds of serving Somali military personnel allowed to cross an international frontier without an arrangement ensuring Ethiopian authorities recognised their status?

Were they carrying weapons or military equipment?

Did Addis Ababa know beforehand that they were coming?

And if they were simply visiting relatives, why has Ethiopia reportedly continued to hold such a large number of them?

Neither side has publicly answered those questions in detail.

Conflicting Numbers Complicate the Picture

The exact number in Ethiopian custody remains one of the most basic unresolved facts.

Sunatimes’ intelligence sources say 316 soldiers have been detained.

Other reports have cited around 180, 200, 231, 300 and even higher figures. None of the governments involved has published a definitive list.

Sunatimes is therefore reporting the figure of 316 as information supplied by its intelligence sources, not as an independently verified official total.

That distinction matters.

A Potentially Dangerous Regional Question

At its simplest, the episode concerns newly trained Somali soldiers who crossed into Ethiopia while Mogadishu says they were on authorised family leave.

But beneath that explanation are more difficult questions involving recruitment across an international border, Saudi financing, Somalia’s confrontation with Jubaland, Ethiopia’s security concerns and the growing strategic competition among regional powers.

There is currently no independently verified evidence that the detained soldiers entered Ethiopia to conduct military operations.

There is, however, clear evidence that members of a Saudi-funded Somali military force crossed into Ethiopia’s Somali Region and were subsequently reported detained — an unusual episode acknowledged in part by Somalia’s own national security leadership.

Whether the incident ultimately proves to be a poorly managed movement of soldiers on leave or part of a much more sensitive regional security arrangement will depend on evidence that neither Mogadishu nor Addis Ababa has yet made public.

Until then, the detention of hundreds of newly trained Somali soldiers remains a significant and unresolved test of relations between the two neighbouring countries.

Sunatimes News Agency — Investigative Desk
Mogadishu / Jigjiga / Addis Ababa