Suffering from a low morale, the estimated sixteen or eighteen hundred militias under the command of the head of Al-Shabab's social and religious affairs, Fuad shangole and those who are under the command of Yusuf Ali known (kaba kudukade) in central regions, are facing difficult situation because of the changing circumstances. Despite any pressure that they might get from the elites to uphold position, they have only two options, lose the grip of power to the angry local tribes or relinquish their position and join in other Al-shabab mobile unities in the country.

Mogadishu {Sunatimes} Somali people were Sunni Muslims who were devoid of any kind of extremism originally, but from 1980s radicalization reared its head in Somalia. After the ouster of the former Regime in 90s the country slipped into anarchy and lawlessness that paved the way for the coming of foreign jihadists in Somalia.

Background

The initiators of extremism in Somalia include1. Former colonel Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys (who served the ousted regime Siad Barre), Aweys was in charge of the military wing of (Al-Itahad Al-Islamia);2. Sheikh Abdulqadir Nur Ga’amay the spiritual leader in the same organization and 3. Sheikh Hassan Turkey, the founder of the Ras-Kamboni militias in Ras-Kamboni, a place which served as a training ground for foreign fighters for over 20 years, but currently dominated Jubba Land self proclaimed administration led by Ahmed Madobe.

Under the leadership of Sheikh Aweys, Al-Itahad Al-Islamia had in 1990s (between 1992 - 1997) launched organized attacks within Somalia and the neighboring Ethiopia, including the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu which is commonly known as Blackhawk down, which claimed the lives of 18 US marines (well trained Rangers) and over a thousand of Somalis. This type of Jihadist ideology gave birth to a number of well-known Somali hardliners, such as Adan Hashi Ayrow, who was killed in 2008 by U S missile in Somalia's central regions, Abu Mansoor Robow, Mahad Karatee, Abu Zubeyr known (Godane in local) and many more of Al-shabab leaders.

The accumulation of foreign Jihadists

Influx of foreign fighters from all the continents flooded into Somalia after the Union of the Islamic Council declared holy war against foreign Ethiopian troops and the Somali Government forces at the end of 2006. With the help of the foreign fighters, Al-Qaida-linked group, Al-Shabab managed to control more then 90 percent of South and Central of Somalia for the last three years. Unlike the Somali government, Al-shabab was financially stable, militarily strong and even politically united, but that has changed in the recent years.

In early 2012, Al-shabab has changed their military command structure from centralized to decentralized system which gives each and every regional commander autonomous authority. This decision was made due to unmanageable stretched distance of land which covers two thousand five hundred kilometers, or 1.580 miles long. In consequence, Al-shabab, recently lost most of the main cities to the Somali security forces with the support of African Union, who are constantly gaining more territories from Alshabab in every battle. On the other hand the grudge harbored by the local, community and tribal elders against Al-Shabab is getting more and more, especially in Galgudud, Hiiraan, and middle shabelle regions, which have been abused and excessively oppressed by Al-shabab for years.

Suffering from a low morale, the estimated sixteen or eighteen hundred militias under the command ofthe head of Al-Shabab's social and religious affairs, Fuad shangole and those who are under the command of Yusuf Ali known (kaba kudukade) in central regions, are facing difficult situation because of the changing circumstances. Despite any pressure that they might get from the elites to uphold position, they have only two options, lose the grip of power to the angry local tribes or relinquish their position and join in other Al-shabab mobile unities in the country.

There are number of undeniable factors that will minimize Al-shabab and Al-Qaeda activities in Somalia.

First and foremost they need to win the support of the local people and tribes which is not available for them anymore. Secondly, the disagreements between the leaders of Al Shabab are getting worse and worse, and therefore factional split is imminent, politically and militarily which will end the existence of Al-Shabab and foreign fighters earlier than expected.

Thirdly, after the diminution of the Somali pirates and losing the port city of Kismayo to Kenyan troops and Kamboni militia, Al-shabab and Al-Qaeda are suffering great deal of financial instability.

Lastly, the confidence between Somalis and foreign fighters has fainted, after a number of foreign leaders were killed either openly or secretly, and even those are still alive feel unprotected and exposed to danger among the Somalis. Furthermore, Hassan Dahir Aweys, the father of Somalia’s Jihad, has lost position of power after his Hisbul Islam militia, melted into Al-shabab nearly two years ago. He recently criticized Al-shabab leader for killing certain individuals, in addition, Sheikh Abdulqadir Ga’amay, the spiritual leader of Al-Itahad Al-Islamia, was killed in assassination by unidentified gunman in self autonomous region of Puntland, Somalia in 2012. The founder of Ras-Kamboni militia, Sheikh Hasan Turkey is also removed from power three years ago. All this signifies the malfunction of Al-shabab and Al-Qaeda mission in Somalia.

However, because of many international stakeholders are using Somalia as financial instrument and benefits insecurity both directly and indirectly. The incompetence of the Somali government which is lagging behind the public expectations and failed to improve the security of Mogadishu let alone other parts of the country. The threat of terrorists and uncertainty of security will be around for quite some time.

Mr Abdisalam Guled

Security and Terrorist Expert

Email:[email protected]

Mobile: +44 (0)7985469472