This week has been truly momentous, and rather surprising, as Mogadishu comes to terms with the abruptwithdrawal of militant Islamist group al-Shabaab from its major bases and strongholds, giving the government the opportunity to fully control the capital for the first time since the insurgency began in early 2007.
Government troops and African Union peacekeepers have spent the weekcautiously spreading throughout the
city, taking control of Bakara Market, Mogadishu Stadium, Daynile,
Yaqshid and Huriwa, although it has not been smooth sailing. Pockets of
al-Shabaab fighters have remained hidden in several areas, and the advancing
forces havemet resistanceon several occasions.
It is still unclear how the new reality will shape up, as there are currently
more questions than answers. Al-Shabaab says it pulled out its forces to as a
tactical switch to urban guerrilla warfare. Others say the real reason lies in
a split between the leadership over allowing aid agencies into insurgent-controlled
areas, withSheikh Mukhtar Robow reportedly
sparking the retreat by pulling out his fighters.Senior leader
Hassan Dahir Aweys on Fridaypublicly admitted to a riftwith leader Ahmed Abdi Godane, but said he hoped it
could be resolved. He also admitted that al-Shabaab could not stand toe-to-toe
with AMISOM, which was gaining ground, lending credence to another theory that
says the retreat was the result of Friday's AMISOM offensive aimed at cutting
off Bakara Market.
There is no doubt, however, that the conflict is
far from over, and there are fears that the insurgent group, which has
undoubtedly looked weaker by dint of its decision to quit Mogadishu, couldactually emerge stronger.
Al-Shabaab was struggling to raise funds, had low morale and plummeting
popularity - as well as the internal strife. Pulling out of the capital, while
hitting the group in the pocket by depriving it of taxes from the cash cow of
Bakara Market, allows al-Shabaab to consolidate its forces and ammunition by
stepping away from a conventional battle that was draining resources and seeing
it slowly lose territory to pro-government forces. Should al-Shabaab manage to
solve its internal problems, this means that there will be a lot more forces to
slow down, or even reverse, government gains in areas such as Gedo, leading to
a new stalemate.
However, one positive dynamic for the government in that scenario is that local
communities, desperate to hold onto their meager resources in face of the
drought, have increasingly been resisting al-Shabaab efforts to appropriate
goods, livestock and cash. There wasanother such exampleon Friday, when the business community in Jowhar,
Middle Shabelle, fought an armed battle agains the insurgents. As usual, the
community lost, but if such movements become a groundswell, it could prove a
major headache for al-Shabaab in terms of diverting forces to garner the
precious resources it needs to fund the insurgency.
The government side faces its own problems in attempts to wrest control of more
ground from al-Shabaab outside the capital. While al-Shabaab could boost its
forces in Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba, clan-based rifts are threatening
any planned advances. Transitional Federal Government forcesclashed with the pro-government Ras
Kamboni militiaon
Thursday over who will control the Jubas should they seize the areas from
al-Shabaab.If this is what they are like now, imagine what will happen
should they actually get their hands on the prize.
There are also question marks over whether the government and African Union
peacekeeping force (known as AMISOM), can hold on to Mogadishu and maintain
security in the face of an expected campaign of suicide bombs, ambushes and
IEDs. The AMISOM chief this weekcalled for the force to be boostedfrom 9,000 to at least the mandated strength of
12,000, preferably more, to consolidate the gains and provide security for
humanitarian agencies expected to step up aid deliveries to famine victims
sheltering around the city.
The government also has to prove it has the capacity to govern effectively, but
first it must get its troops in line. We had already discussed several
disgusting incidents of looting of humanitarian aid before the al-Shabaab
withdrawal, and this week government forces were againcaught with their
hands in the till, this time ransacking businesses in Bakara Market, which has
been shut down for a security sweep. Two soldiers weresentenced to deathfor their part in the crimes as the government
promises to maintain discipline.
Despite all the questions and problems that lie
ahead, Mogadishu residents are happy to suddenly find themselves free of an
organization that imposed strict Sharia law and also taxed them heavily, and
the internally displaced sheltering around Mogadishu will no longer find themselves
in the firing line. It's now up to the government and AU to take advantage of
al-Shabaab's retreat and deliver on their transitional mandate.
Humanitarian
After a brief splurge of aid deliveries in previous weeks, there was little in
the way of large-scale mobilization to help famine victims, although UNHCR this
weekcarried out itsfirst airlift to Mogadishu in five
years. Even though access to al-Shabaab areas is still uncertain,
now that Mogadishu has opened up there should be an increasein
humanitarian activity as more people are accessible for aid.
The UN's special envoy to Somalia, Augustine P Mahiga, called for a rapid
response to al-Shabaab's withdrawal, and said that the UN was now looking at
quickly scalingup its presence in Mogadishu, instead of the "light
footprint" initially envisaged. According to the UN Political Office on
Somalia, that means24 UN staffers inMogadishu by
the end of the year.
In all fairness to the slow-moving behemoth that is the UN, four to five months
can be considered a pretty rapid response. However, 24 people will still leave
rather a light footprint,unless they are intending on sending only chunky
staff who have over-indulged in the many restaurants of the Kenyan capital
Nairobi.
Significantly faster are foreign journalist, who
have taken advantage of the new situation tobravely venture into Mogadishunow there is significantly less chance of being shot
or bombed.CNN even felt confident enough to send in the big guns (now the
real big guns are silent), dispatching its hip anchor Anderson Cooper.
Such high-profile coverage can only be welcome, given the other stories - such
as the US debt default scare, UK phone hacking scandal and riots, and Norwegian
massacre- that have eaten up column inches and pushed Somalia down the
pecking order. The response in the West hasfallen far shortof donations to the earthquake in Haiti orthe
Asian tsunami, and aid agencies are still lacking the money they need to
effectively deal with thecrisis.
Puntland
Residents in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland are also worriedly looking at
the developments to the south, and believe that al-Shabaab may seek to set up amajor base in the mountainous Galgalaregionfrom
which to launch attacks. Peace talks are ongoing with Sheikh Mohamed Atam,
whose Galgala-based militia is constantly linked to the insurgents, but there
is concern that if these talks break down he will welcome al-Shabaab with open
arms.
There were also unwelcome signs of more tension between Puntland and Somaliland
over the disputed Sool, Sanaag and Cayn (SSC) region when Puntland security
forcesarrested a delegation of almost two
dozen Somaliland officialsin
the region following a short gun battle.
Somaliland and Puntland have fought over SSC before, and any escalation in
violence would be a major blow to the reputations of the two breakaway regions,
which have been selling themselves as bastions of relative peace and stability
in one of the world's most chaotic nations.
Piracy
The long dry spell experienced by Somali pirates continued this week, with no
successful attacks. Since the seizure of the MT Gemini on May 30, only two
vessels have been taken (both quickly released), neither of them high-value
targets. A combination of poor weather, on-board security detachments and navy
intervention has suppressed the pirates, although you can be sure they will be
making a proper nuisance of themselves again once the weather improves.
For a full breakdown of piracy-related shenanigans, please see ourweekly reportfrom today.
That's it from us. We'd just like to remind you that you can follow us onFacebookorTwitterfor all the stories as they happen.Of course, if
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clog up your inbox, please let us know.
Have a great weekend.
Regards,
The Editor
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Somalia Report Weekly Newsletter-Volume 13
Dear Readers,Issue 1, Volume 13