Haji Abdikarim Hussein (nicknamed “Abdi the Hyena”)

Upping the ante, their most respected senior citizen and a member of the house of elders, Haji Abdikariim Hussein (nicknamed “Abdi the Hyena”), spoke for most of the secessionists in the enclave in delivering his apocalyptic ultimatum to the SSC Taleex conference. Unless they remain faithful to Somaliland, he warned, they will find themselves stateless refugees outside the SSC regions just like the Palestinians. Not mincing his words, he added that “land does not move but it is its people who are liable to displacement and ethnic-cleansing”

Their minister of the interior, not one to be outdone by Abdi the Hyena, also warned of the dire consequences that would follow if the SSC people had the temerity to establish their own regional administration, reckoning rightly that this would usher the end of their occupation of Laas Caanod and some parts of the SSC. The fact that his own clan (and others) had organised similar conferences in the past and subsequently established their own clan administration, albeit one masquerading as national and independent, is beside the point. Do what we tell you and not what we do is their motto.

If there is one thing the secessionists have faithfully emulated from their venerated British colonial mentors, it is their arrogant posturing, their self-righteousness, their use of the language of diktat and domination, and their readiness to resort to force in order to bring other clans to heel unless they get their way. That is what they did to Awdal in 1991, to Sool in 2007, but failed to do to Kalshaale in 2010.

For the SSC people, at home and abroad, Somaliland’s sabre-rattling and smear campaign against their conference will be dismissed as the last gasps of a doomed secession that is on the ropes. Far from acting as a deterrent, the enclave’s ranting will, if anything, only serve to galvanize the resolve of the conference to declare the SSC regions as ones under the control of its people through whatever administrative arrangements they choose to establish but an order that will at all times uphold the unshakeable unity of Somalia.

Mohamed Nor Arale Dur, Somaliland’s Minister of Interior

Since the minister realistically does not expect the SSC conference to heed his threats, the audiences he has in mind are his own secessionist clan and the international community. For his clan, his speech is meant to sooth their anguish. For the past 2o years, they were made to imbibe brazen unfiltered propaganda about their independence, imminent recognition, and lies that all the clans in former British Somaliland were on board. Much to their horror, they now sense in the SSC Taleex conference the beginning of the end of their dreamland.

All the more then that the international community is the other main target of the minister’s speech, entailing a plea for support in two ways: firstly, it is an appeal to the international community to accept, if not recognise, Somaliland’s “sovereignty” and “territorial integrity” vis-à-vis their preposterous claim to the SSC regions. And secondly, it is a plea to them to accept as legitimate any force Somaliland may have to use in order to keep the SSC regions under its control in line with their claimed “sovereignty” over the SSC.This is a request symptomatic of a people who live in a cloud cuckoo land.

For the international country, there is no such a thing as a “separate independent and sovereign” Somaliland but only one Somalia in which the secessionist enclave, the SSC and all other regions are part and parcel. The upshot is that the international community, or more precisely those member countries that matter, would not intervene in Somalia’s internal affairs and support one clan against another clan(s).

Of all the other four clans and their regions in former British Somaliland, it is the SSC regions (preferably without its people as Abdi the Hyena would wish) which the secessionists consider existentialist for their cause. This is because the SSC regions are the only ones contiguous with the rest of Somalia (former Italian Somaliland). And as long as the SSC people are determined to remain part of Somalia, the unity between former British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland would remain intact. Without the SSC regions, the puny residual secessionist enclave would stand even less chance to win recognition. This precarious situation would become more untenable when all the four clans in the unionist regions — SSC, Awdal and eastern Sanaag — make a common front against their secessionist occupiers. This is already happening.

The consistent stance of the international community on Somalia’s unity has now been given an unchallengeable legal underpinning. An important development in this respect is the recentsubmissionof China to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague to rule that Somaliland is an integral part of Somalia. There is no reason to doubt that the court will not confirm China’s position which is in line what the United Nations, the African Union, the League of Arab States, the Organisation of Islamic Countries and regional organisations have been saying all along since the collapse of the Somali State. Always defiant, the secessionists’ bizarre counter claims was that the union of British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland was not legally ratified(not true), or that Somaliland’s colonial borders remain valid (ridiculous and untrue) and a host of other fairy tales. The expected ICJ judgement will put all this to rest.

Given the stance of the international community and the judgement of the ICJ, Somaliland’s occupation of the SSC regions is in the first place illegal. Its continued occupation, and any force it uses to deny, foil or oppose the SSC people in exercising their inalienable right to be part of Somalia and to manage their own affairs would constitute crimes against their human rights, or, even worse, crimes against humanity, something that comes under the purview of the International Criminal Court.

The dilemma that faces the secessionist camp is the choice between two painful options:. One is to fight on to the bitter end in order to hold on to the occupied SSC areas as well as Awdal in defiance of the ruling of the International Court of Justice and the stance of the international community. The problem with this option is that occupation of one clan over others is unwinnable and doomed. Not only will they ultimately fail, but they will bring upon themselves untold economic, financial and humanitarian disaster (the SSC are prepared for the sacrifice). And their political and military leaders will be liable to be indicted at the International Criminal Court for the crimes they commit against the SSC people.

Ahmed Silanyo

The other more sensible option, albeit a bitter pill to swallow, is to throw in the towel, accept that the secession has come to the end of the road and seek their rightful place in the new federal Somalia that is to emerge. Though hard to stomach it, this is the appropriate occasion to prepare their folk for the inevitable demise of the secession and the need to reconcile themselves with their fellow Somalis in Somalia. This task would be made easier by the ruling from the International Court of Justice and the opposition of all the other four unionist clans in the north to the secession and to be part of Somaliland.

Giving up the secession would require a very brave, statesmanlike and visionary Somaliland leader who is prepared to confront his people with the painful Hobson’s choice they face. Siilaanyo is certainly brave. But whether he has got the vision to see the inevitable and has what it takes as a statesman to lead his people towards reconciliation with Somalia remains to be seen. This is where the international community, and in particular those countries which wield considerable leverage over them, like Great Britain, the USA and the EU, could weigh in and persuade them to come to terms with the harsh realities and be part of a federal Somalia in which they are bound to play a pivotal role.

Osman Hassan
Chairperson
SSC Foreign Relations Commission