“Balkanization:” (from Wikipedia) A geopolitical term, originally used to describe the process of fragmentation or division of a region or state into smaller regions or states that are often hostile or non-cooperative with each other, and it is considered pejorative… The term refers to the division of the Balkan Peninsula, formerly ruled almost entirely by the Ottoman Empire; into a number of smaller states between 1817 and 1912…The term is used to describe…disintegration.

What is happening NOW in Somalia (Growe Road Map) is Balkanization. Tribal States are already formed, and they are often hostile and un-cooperative with each other.

Last week, when I read an interview given by the Corrupted UN Envoy of Somalia Mr. Mahiga I almost barfed out of anger and disgust. Mahiga said Quote “Any Somali who tries to protest the disputed Somali Tribal Federal Constitution I will arrest him as a terrorist”.

TFG of Mogadishu does not have an effective institutional of cooperation between these tribal states. The next tribal constitutional federation and political system is a system of spoils, pitting each tribal state against each other for the Federal largesse. Later when a Tribal Congressman or Tribal Senator “brings home the Cadkooda,” they will judge by whether or not they can wheedle more political nominee positions coming back to their tribe than the other tribal states. Those tribal states that wouldn’t become happy for that outcome they may proclaim their independency from the federal system (secessionism). That is considered success in the prediction Balkanized Somalia of 2013.

Secession of Tribal State from the Somali Republic will not resolve the current crises of Somalia.There is not one Political clan Ideology in Somalia that is a hotbed of secessionist thought (excluding Somaliland Secessionists Tribes and some elements from Puntland Tribal Federalists politicians).

There are many who anticipate a Balkanization of Somali Republic.If you read the Mahiga’s new draft federal constitution and learn more about Growe Road Map, you can anticipate the collapse of the Mogadishu government (that does automatically translate into the Growe Road Map of Balkanization). I believe that most Somalis will support in the Somali Union, moving direction to draft their own Constitution Union from their next set of real status of their lovely country.

For some Neighbor States like Ethiopia and Kenya it is a Strategy for defeating the Somali Union republic. “Smaller pieces of a pie are easier to eat”.I know of no Somali who prefers the idea of “balkanization” to defeat the Somali Union (excluding some elements from northern secessionist’s tribal politicians). Most who wish to defeat the Somali Union are using terrorism austerity,increasing the idea of breaking up the Union (Somaliland Tribal Secessionists politicians and Puntland tribal Federalists politicians are for fronts of those groups).

Some in the Patriot Unionists States like Khatumo Stateare actively seeking to STOP both Tribal Secessionism and Tribal Federalism. The result will be the different, and tyranny will never win. Some of the above mentioned circles believes that if we don’t have a tribal federation system the tyranny will win everywhere in Somalia. I do not believe that tyranny will win EVERYWHERE. Once the overarching Republic Union is stripped of its power and existence, there will be a fight between tribal Secessionists/Federalists and Somali Patriot Unionists Tribes. Please remember what happened to the Horn of Africa (Somalis in Horn of Africa) in 1950’s and later. All Somalis from Southern, Northern, NFD, Ogadenia and Djibouti organized Somali Union Movements. The prediction is after defeating Secessionist’s, tribal federalist’s ideology and Growe Road Map, those 5 regions people may recall there UNION again.

The Right to have a free association is one thing, but creating the circumstances in which few want to secede is a worst goal of freedom:Humans have an Unalienable Right of free association, the right to have relationships with whomever they choose. And the “right to secede” is simply another Unalienable Right…the Right to Contract. In that right you may enter into contract as well as leave a contract. Diminishing the demand for tribal secession and tribal federalism means increasing the supply of personal liberty and property rights of Somali people. I think that can be done in a nation of over 40 million diverse souls living in 4 regions of horn of Africa (Somalia, Ogadenia, NFD, and Djibouti) , especially when most of those souls do want more to join their brothers and sisters as Somali Union State.

Conclusion:

Friends, stop thinking Tribal Secessionism and Tribal Federalism. Start thinking Somali Pan Union as SYL, USP and SNL thought before. Then think bigger. That’s were Somali Strong Nation will live in our futures. Tribal Secession and Tribal Federalism are both Hopeless for Somalia’s future. I believe that most Somalis will support in the Somali Union.

By: Pro-Unionists Somali Diaspora (Office of Somali Unity)

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