For over twenty one years, my great people of the Somali Republic have suffered harshly inside and outside Somalia. So much blood has been shed. Millions were forced to refugee camps. The lives, dreams, and hopes of young boys and girls were wrecked. Tribal Militias, gangs, thugs, and warlords took over the country. Somalia became a save heaven for piracy and extremism. One attempt after another of reconciling the differences of these criminals off course bore no fruit. With the formation of the unpopular (then) Transitional Federal Government (TFG) backed by the International Community in 2004, many thought things would perhaps be different. However, although the attempts continued, the mistrust of the TFG leadership, despair of the Somali people, and the lack of serious mechanisms to dig Somalia out of the hole left the country inert.

I am sure every Somali can profess to the extreme challenges faced during the last two decades of statelessness and mean no harm in repeating them. It is my intent to highlight that the Somali people are tied and expect nothing less than a stable and peaceful society on again. It is with this regard that I believe we all need to work very hard to ensure that the new political dispensation is one that makes a difference for our people. We have been here before and previous opportunities failed to bring the required peace and stability to the country. Through the will and the understanding of the Somali people who have come to essentially realize that enough is enough and that the blame game must end. It is time that we Somalis take a lead role in our affairs. We can do this. In my short four years of work and life experiences in Mogadishu, I have never been more optimistic and close to victory.

We ought to learn from our previous mistakes or missed opportunities and cease the current window of opportunity. We have clear and reliable mechanisms that will allow us to reach our aspirations as a nation of people with common bequest. We now have a roadmap, endorsed and committed by the diverse sectors of the Somali society “to end the transitional governance”

Progresses made so far by TFG

The current technocratic, mostly western-educated government led by Prime Minister Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali has made huge progress in all the areas of the roadmap; security, political outreach & reconciliation, constitution making process, and good governance. It is without doubt and in consultations with the diverse sectors of the Somali society, and increasing partnership of regional governments, meeting its mandate of ending the transition. In doing so, the government wishes to ultimately provide the requisite environment that will allow for new political dispensations to take place by August 2012. This, I believe, will be historic and unconventional. Have we ever thought about the possibilities of installing a new parliament and government that are legitimate and accountable to the people (directly or indirectly) –not disregarding the fact that will take place inside Somalia?

Considering the multiple-fold challenges we face in this time of hope and optimism for a better future, the fact of the matter is, how can we install legitimate and accountable institutions in Somalia in the current situation? It is in this light that I write this piece to start the debates and discussions on the best strategies forward; dealing with the current challenges and ensuring that the new political dispensation will be one that is acceptable to all Somalis.

The time is too short and there are lots of tasks to complete before August 2012. The two critical elements will be the provisional adoption of the new constitution and the reform of the parliament that will guide us to a stable and permanent government.

It will be an unforgiveable error on my part to not highlight the incredible achievements of the Transitional Federal Government (hopefully the last TFG). On the security sector, the positive developments are self evident as Mogadishu, Beledweyn, Baidoa, Hudur, parts of Jubba and central regions have been liberated from Al-Shabaab. The government has adopted and is implementing a three year National Security & Stabilization Plan (NSSP) and a Stabilization program is currently underway to all newly liberated areas.

We have made significant progress and achieved milestones towards political outreach, as Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs), regional authorities and Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamai’a (ASWJ) are now strong allies and partners. This has made it possible to agree or sign further agreements after the historic Mogadishu Conference namely; the Garowe I, Garowe II and Galkayo agreements. We are making huge strides in finalizing the draft constitution as the Committee of Experts (CoE) and the Independent Commission for the Constitution (ICC) conduct public consultations and outreach to all segments of the Somali society.

The role of civil society groups

The TFG has been an advocate for inclusivity and the engagement of civil society and as a result, the government in collaboration with the United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) invited civil society groups in Mogadishu for a two-day conference in late November 2011 where they discussed the Roadmap. At the end of the conference, they issued an endorsing statement in full support of the Roadmap.

Again the TFG invited civil society groups and members from the Diaspora to the second Constitutional Conference in Garowe in mid February 2012. This was the most inclusive conference ever held in Somalia and the largest participants were from the civil society groups.

Additionally, per the Galkacyo Agreement of 26 March 2012, it was agreed that the hereditary Traditional Leaders will be assisted by civil society groups during the selection processes of the 825 members of the Constituent Assembly (CA) and the 225 new MPs. Better yet, the 825 CA members will compose of all focus groups; youth, women, traditional and religious leaders, professionals and other segments of the society. It is self-evident that these groups will also have a role in the provisional adaption of the new constitution.

Despite all these efforts it appears that some civil society groups are still complaining that they are not fully engaged with the process. It can be argued that these civil society groups are those based in Westgate, Nairobi and have ample opportunities and time to manipulate members of the International Community. I wish to suggest that the International Community has responsibilities to reach out to civil society groups inside the country and to objectively study the propaganda from those groups in Westgate who have political ambitions.

The TFG continues to advocate for the increased participation of the civil society and values the contributions of the groups to the process.

Newly Liberated Areas

The TFG is implementing its policy and strategy towards Newly Liberated Areas (NLAs) in order to stabilize and avoid the return of warlords and Al-Shabaab. The government believes that these areas require urgent attention in terms of securing areas, providing basic services, establishing peace committees, engaging with communities, reconciling amongst competing clans and finally local people deciding their future and to choose their own local administration. The TFG must be commended for its efforts in these areas with its meager resources including the senior government officials’ visits to Beledweyn, Baidoa, Hudur and Gedo and other parts of the country shortly after the ouster of Al-Shabaab from each city. I hope the promise of the Local Stability Fund by UK will help TFG to advance the implementation of its policy and strategy on NLAs.

The London Conference

The progresses made towards implementing the Roadmap as well as subsequent agreements led Rt Hon David Cameron MP, the Prime Minister of UK to take a leadership role and convene the historic Summit on Somalia on 23 February 2012 which really galvanized the International Communities’ efforts and commitments towards Somalia.

The Prime Minister of Somalia, while speaking at Chatham House a day after the London Conference described the event as an important support to Somalis and stated “I believe the conference facilitated a shift in the profiling of Somalia from ‘failed state’ ‘terrorism hub’, ‘piracy centre’ and ‘famine country’ to a country attempting to ‘turn the corner’ to ‘tackle Al Qaeda’, to ‘make progress on transitional governance’, to build foundations for a prosperous future for Somali citizens.“ The Prime Minister added that as a result of the conference he expected enhanced support to the Roadmap and to see sanctions on spoilers to the transitional process.

There is no doubt that UK’s increasing and continued support to Somalia is urgently needed, however, the important question is whether the UK government will ensure that the transition will end with a permanent government for Somalia? It is not clear and it will depend on many issues including the responsibilities of Somali leaders completing the process and agreements, be it hosting the Traditional Leaders in Mogadishu on 25 April, convening the 825 Constituent Assembly members by 15 May in order for them to provisionally adopt the constitution by 31 May or ensuring that the new parliament is in place by 15 June 2012. The International Community wishes to see the process completed on time; however, Somali leaders have continued to raise huge concerns on the delays from the International Community to provide timely resources promised to facilitate the process.

The current debates and discussions

To conclude, the debates and discussions that I want you to share with me are as follows together with my humble opinions:

1. How can we ensure that we have a process that is representative, inclusive and accountable to all Somalis? In my humble opinion it is very difficult to get 100% of this, however, we need to be more creative and come up with new initiatives that meet the expectations of the Somali people. I would like to argue here that all of us who want to see a change and better political dispensation must be part of the process and influence the public by genuinely advocating for the selection of a credible and accountable parliament that can objectively select the best presidential candidate for the benefit of our people.
2. How can we support the current processes of ending the transition in order to take advantage of positive developments and continue to ensure that Somalis lead the process? We have to stop making excuses and being only critics and by-standers. We should rather make sacrifices for our beloved country and get deeply involved, including becoming members of the constitutional adoption assembly “The Constituent Assembly” and compete for selection of the new parliament. We ought it to our children to stop the blame game and think bigger than ourselves.
3. What will happen if the current process fails? Our priority should be to realize a positive transformation in Somalia that will make a difference for our people; hence, we should support the process and avoid failures. On several occasions, the Prime Minister was asked this question and he consistently reiterated his focus on implementing the Roadmap to end the transition and that he avoids any speculations of failure. However, the process could derail due to political infighting of the signatories, if spoilers prevent the system to move forward, if the International Community does not provide the timely resources required to execute the remaining tasks and a combination of any of these. It is my humble suggestion that Somalis should analyze and weigh all options including the possibilities of failure. It is also my modest recommendation that we should unleash our inner powers and ensure that the current process succeeds.

However, if all fails we should have an alternative plan (plan B). Such a plan will certainly require consensus of the Somali people to serve its purpose. I think that in such scenario, we should revisit UK’s non paper before the London Conference and modify slightly. Instead of ‘Interim Authority’ controlling the country, it would be preferable to have an ‘Interim Government’ to protect our sovereignty and territorial integrity with a one head of Government/State and a small technocrat team. Understandably, their mandate will be to continue stabilizing the country, finalizing the remaining and relevant tasks of the current Road Map and prepare elections in due course.

4. What can and should be done to spoilers? A lot can be done. The Somali people should start naming and shaming them at early stage. If the spoilers continue to disrupt the process then we should seek guidance from the International Community to start the process of black-listing and sanctioning them. The time has come to stop impunity.

Finally, we should acknowledge that despite all our efforts and commitments, there could be shortcomings in meeting each deadline. This should not discourage our efforts. We should keep our eyes on the ball and do all it takes to get us across the bridge.

I hope the above 4 questions and my responses will ignite the debates and discussions on moving our country forward. I welcome your kind suggestions, responses, comments and off course constructive criticisms. Please note that this article and all the suggestions are solely my personal views and not necessarily the view of the Government or the Prime Minister.

Mr Abdirahman Omar Osman (Eng. Yarisow) is the Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister of Somalia & Spokesperson of the Somali Government. He held senior government positions including Minister of Treasury, acting Minister of Finance and Minister of Information. He is a long time social activist, political analyst and former Community Leader in UK, where he worked in Local Government for 10 years.

By Abdirahman Omar Osman (Eng. Yarisow) — 18 April 2012

[email protected]or [email protected]