Dear Readers,

It has been a chaotic week in Somalia, with a return to heavy fighting in Mogadishu and the border regions, an expansion of the areas defined as famine zones, and an internet blackout that caused massive problems with communications and remittances from the diaspora.

Militant Islamist group al-Shabaab took no time at all to deliver on its promise of a Ramadan offensive, starting off on the eve of the holy month with a suicide attack that killed at least two African Union peacekeepers, followed up a few days' later by an attack on a government checkpoint that claimed four lives.

The AU peacekeeping mission and government forces had begun the hostilities by driving at insurgent positions in the capital, and al-Shabaab has responded to a perceived threat to its stronghold of Bakara Market by positioning snipers on the roofs of buildings.

In the border regions, al-Shabaab also killed a government commander as they retook the village of Busar in Gedo.

Yet the insurgent group has not had it all its own way, and residents say that despite an influx of freshly trained troops to Mogadishu, al-Shabaab commanders and preachers have beenleaving the capital for more secure territory in Lower and Middle Shabelle.

There were also further signs of discontent with the group, whose policy on not allowing in foreign aid agencies to famine zones and strict interpretation of Islamic law has damaged its popularity. Residents stabbed an al-Shabaab leader to death in a village in Middle Shabelle after he tried to stop a funeral ceremony.

If al-Shabaab leaders really are quitting Mogadishu, as residents say they are, and the AU can live up to its promises to take further ground, including a stadium used as a staging ground, we could be looking at the possibility of the government actually controlling enough of Mogadishu to kill the most overused phrase in journalism, which refers to the "weak Western-backed government that controls only a few blocks of the capital". Then again, al-Shabaab has shown time and again that rumors of its demise are usually greatly exaggerated.

And anyway, who needs al-Shabaab to cause chaos in Mogadishu when you have ragtag bands of militia and undisciplined government soldiers terrorising their own people?

First up in the hall of shame were militia loyal to two government officials, who killed four civilians in the crossfire of a fight over somebody's lights going off, of all things.

Even more shameful was the looting of humanitarian aid being delivered to a camp for displaced families, and the shooting of those who tried to defend the food that could save their lives, by government soldiers. 

Looting is on the rise, and the government must reign in its forces quickly - not just for the sake of the lives of desperate women and children reliant on aid, but for its own credibility in a battle with al-Shabaab to win over the population with the best famine response.

Humanitarian

While soldiers were helping themselves to some of the little aid that is actually reaching the Somali people, the UN added three new areas (Mogadishu, Afgoye Corridor and Middle Shabelle) to its list of official famine zones.

Only 20% of the 2.8 million people in need of aid are being reached at the moment, the UN said, with most of the needy still in al-Shabaab areas and access still limited except for a few deliveries from the likes of UNICEF and the ICRC. The head of one NGO told Somalia Report he expects it will be another 4-8 weeks before serious aid starts reaching the most needy, meaning that the death toll already estimated in the tens of thousands is sure to rise.

Even if al-Shabaab were to suddenly throw open the doors to every Western aid agency, there are still major concerns over funding shortfalls. Somalia Report polled key organizations to find out if they have received the money they asked for. Ten agencies responded, and combined they have only reached 49% of the funds they need to deal with the crisis.

As if that wasn't bad enough, residents of Mogadishu, many of whom are reliant on money sent back home from relatives abroad, were hit by delays due to massive internet problems. Huge sums flow through the Hawala system, which along with the websites of local media was hit by a near-total internet blackout.

Politics

There was little public political activity, no doubt because the politicians all need a nice lie down following the months of frenetic activity and jockeying for position that resulted in a new prime minister and cabinet.

However, pro-government militia Ahlu Sunnah wal Jamaa got together for a week-long meeting aimed at electing a new leadership and finally sorting out the internal splits that have hampered their fight against al-Shabaab.

Piracy

At least the pirates were quiet again, with no successful hijackings to report. There was even good news, with the release of 14 crew from a Thai fishing vessel who had been held for over a year - although the six crew members who died from illness and the five still being held were less lucky.

Pirate groups also had their traditional weekly shoot-out. This time one was killed in a spat over ransom demands for the Greek-owned MV Polar. If they keep it up at this rate, they may well solve the piracy problem all by themselves.

Special Features

This week, we took a look at the oft-repeated allegations of toxic dumping off the coast of Somalia, which pirates use as justification for filling their pockets with large wads of ransom dollars, as well as the difficulties of actually finding a map of Somalia that everyone agrees on.

Our publisher, Robert Young Pelton, also got the US media all in a lather by digging into a UN report and highlighting the fact that the US may indirectly be getting guns and ammo into the hands of al-Shabaab via its support for AMISOM.

That rounds up another eventful week in Somalia. As usual, feel free to bombard [email protected] with comments and suggestions for articles.

Regards,

The Editor